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中南大学学报(自然科学版)

Journal of Central South University

第45卷    第9期    总第241期    2014年9月

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文章编号:1672-7207(2014)09-3288-07
改进GTDM-NE模型对我国能源需求规律分析
于凤玲1, 2,陈建宏1,周扬1,周汉陵1

(1. 中南大学 资源与安全工程学院,湖南 长沙,410083;
2. 五邑大学 经济管理学院,广东 江门,529020
)

摘 要: 为了探求能源需求与各主要影响因素之间的关系及规律,通过对近年来我国能源需求量以及各影响因素指标的数据统计分析,建立基于改进灰靶决策及非等距(GTDM-NE)预测模型的能源需求规律模型体系。首先对能源需求的各影响因素进行预测,然后根据预测结果,对历年的各影响因素的灰色测度进行计算;其次,根据计算结果对影响因素进行改进灰靶决策分析,并将分析结果与能源需求量对应;最后,利用改进的GTDM-NE模型建立能源需求量与影响因素之间的规律关系式,并且利用这关系式对能源需求量进行预测与分析。研究结果表明:用GTDM-NE模型对能源需求量进行短期预测结果较精确。

 

关键词: 能源;灰靶决策;非等距

Energy demand law analysis of China based on improved GTDM-NE model
YU Fengling1, 2, CHEN Jianhong1, ZHOU Yang1, ZHOU Hanling1

1. School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;
2. School of Economics & Management, Wu Yi University, Jiangmen 529020, China

Abstract:In order to explore the relationship and law between the energy demand and the major influencing factors, through the analysis of the recent years statistics data of Chinese energy demand and impact indicators, the energy demand system model was established based on the improved grey target decision-making (GTDM) theory and non-equidistant (NE) model. Firstly, the influencing factors on the energy demand were forecasted. Secondly, according to the predicted results, the influencing factors of every year were considered in grey measure calculation. The improved grey target decision was analyzed, and the results were corresponded to the energy demand. The law between the energy demand and the impact of factors was revealed using the non-equidistant forecast model and the amount of energy demand was forecasted and analyzed. The results show that the GTDM-NE model used to predict the energy demand in short time is more accurate than other ways.

 

Key words: energy; demand; grey target decision-making; non-equidistant

中南大学学报(自然科学版)
  ISSN 1672-7207
CN 43-1426/N
ZDXZAC
中南大学学报(英文版)
  ISSN 2095-2899
CN 43-1516/TB
JCSTFT
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