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中南大学学报(自然科学版)

Journal of Central South University

第52卷    第1期    总第317期    2021年1月

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文章编号:1672-7207(2021)01-0228-11
中国电力行业大气汞排放控制的路径研究
于跃1,金智新2,栗继祖1,贾里3

(1. 太原理工大学 经济管理学院,山西 太原,030024;
2. 太原理工大学 安全与应急管理工程学院,山西 太原,030024;
3. 太原理工大学 电气与动力工程学院,山西 太原,030024
)

摘 要: 为减少电力行业大气汞排放,从电厂技术出发,建立自下而上的电力行业大气汞排放模型,采用情景分析法,将能源结构调整、最优技术的最大化利用这2种途径与能源消费、大气汞污染排放等结合起来,并从成本出发,对2020—2050年的电力行业大气汞排放控制做出预测分析,研究电力行业能源节约与大气汞减排的最佳途径。研究结果表明:未来中国电力需求量呈现逐年上升趋势,其重心将逐渐由工业转移到建筑和交通。如果维持现有政策和技术发展趋势,电力行业的一次能源与大气汞排放量将大幅上升,给中国未来的能源供应和汞排放控制产生极大压力。在综合减排(COC)情景下,电力行业可以在优化能源消费结构的同时引入并最大化应用最优控制技术,在能源节约的基础上实现大气汞的高效减排,大气汞排放量将于2030年达到峰值,同时具有合理的减排成本,对最终实现气候友好具有重大意义。

 

关键词: 电力行业;大气汞;能源;减排;TIMES模型

Research on path of atmospheric mercury emission control in China''s power industry
YU Yue1, JIN Zhixin2, LI Jizu1, JIA Li3

1. College of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China;
2. College of Safety and Emergency Management Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology,
Taiyuan 030024, China;
3. College of Electrical and Power Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China

Abstract:In order to reduce the atmospheric mercury emissions of the power industry, a bottom-up model was established based on the power plant technology. The scenario analysis method was used to combine the energy structure adjustment and the maximum utilization of the optimal technology with the energy consumption and atmospheric mercury emissions. A forecast analysis of the atmospheric mercury emission control in the power industry from 2020 to 2050 was made from the cost perspective, and the best way to save energy and reduce atmospheric mercury emissions in the power industry was studied. The results show that in the future, China''''s power demand will show an upward trend year by year, and its focus will gradually shift from industry to construction and transportation. If the current policies and technological development trends are maintained, the primary energy and atmospheric mercury emissions of power industry will increase significantly, putting tremendous pressure on China''''s future energy supply and mercury emission control. Under the co-control(COC) scenario, the application of optimal control technology can be introduced and maximized while the energy consumption structure can be optimized in the power industry, so as to achieve high-efficiency emission reduction of atmospheric mercury on the basis of energy conservation. The atmospheric mercury emissions will reach the peak value in 2030 at a reasonable emission reduction cost, which is of great significance to the ultimate realization of climate-friendliness.

 

Key words: power industry; atmospheric mercury; energy; emission reduction; TIMES model

中南大学学报(自然科学版)
  ISSN 1672-7207
CN 43-1426/N
ZDXZAC
中南大学学报(英文版)
  ISSN 2095-2899
CN 43-1516/TB
JCSTFT
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